Surfing investment ideas
Disclaimer: Not investment advice. For information use only.
List of stock theses below.
The best stocks catch LONG waves…. like e-commerce which has both the most people and most money spend globally. And you also want earlier stage, owner-operators (even better, founders) who have the vision of executing to catch these long waves.
Balanced with discipline…. at the same time waves are DANGEROUS! And you need a process to ensure you survive and thrive in the volatility of waves. Like Bobby Axelrod says here you need a PROCESS and codified behavior. (I am still developing this!)
Stock selection, position sizing, market timing, risk management
Ok shut-up, just give me some investment ideas….
Most of these stocks are in wait and see mode!
SE. The company is founder-led (Forest Li Xiaodong) and Tencent backed company that looks to be the leading e-commerce, gaming and financial services platform for south-east Asia and and south-America. SE has about a $110B market cap versus Tencent ($925+B) and Amazon ($1.6T). Population wise 670+m in SE Asia vs. 1.6B in China and 330m in the USA. Dynamics in ecommerce in the USA and China suggest that leaders take most, and stay leaders due to expanding advantages from scale (from use of data and new services). This suggests SE could be at least half the size of Tencent over time.
Weekly price range estimated $214–254 / share.
CCIV. Peter Rawlinson the former Chief Engineer at TSLA. All cars will become electric and the incumbents seem to have a harder time competing. Lucid seems to have best in class technology based on the EV efficiency metrics (hp / kg and range). Based on TSLA’s experience it seems Lucid wants to win the high-end luxury segment of EV cars with strong technology and eventually expand to mass markets. At current valuation (roughly $25B) they are about 4–5% of TSLA’s valuation. If they can reach TSLA’s scale that’s quite a bit of runway.
Weekly price range estimated at $22–31 / share.
BILI. The company is the “YouTube” of China and best-in-class shareholder base: Hillhouse, Lone Pine, Capital and Tencent. Chinese companies with Tencent backing have done very well.
Weekly price range estimated at $98–119 / share.
PLTR. Palantir is led by Alex Karp and Peter Thiel. Businesses are becoming software and vice versa and PLTR could be a key enabler and partner for many companies. Based on the history of government security work this platform could provide very essential services for companies. History of enterprise software suggests 30+% CAGR is possible to reach a size like CRM ($200B) vs. current PLTR’s $50B market cap.
Weekly price range estimated at $23–29 / share
LSPD. Led by founder Dax Sailva, LSPD seems to be the leader in payment and inventory software platforms for retail and hospitality businesses. Like other software businesses (ecomm, payments), where advantages accrue with scale, same could happen with LSPD in the retail and hospitality space. Could also benefit with reopening.
Weekly price range estimated at $58–72 / share.
CURI. Cool new digital channel that looks to be a better discovery or animal channel for internet streaming content. Founder-led by John Hendricks who founded Discovery a major TV network. Could become a sizable niche for consumers that want to learn. Discovery is $30B vs. Curi’s $800m cap. He also recently purchased more stock at these levels.
Weekly price range estimated at $14–20 / share.
These two stocks are positive from a price trend and from factor perspective in terms of sector (XLY and XLK — financials and consumer), short interest (some), and beta (high).
LB. Management team that seem to be best-in-class operators based on turning around the company on gross margins and sales. Retail will also likely benefit from re-opening. The Victoria Secret brand is also not valued highly at all and could be a source of additional capital from a deal or earnings with a turnaround.
Weekly price range of $52–60 / share. Has an positive IV premium as well.
RKT. Founded by visionary Dan Gilbert, RKT is one the best (only?) fully digital mortgage origination platforms. Look to gradually gain market share in a mature industry as everyone loves digital. Stock likely has high short interest due to expectations of cyclical decline in mortgage originations this year due to tough comps. Hold to collect premiums (and dividend) on a company that will continue to collect market share with its stock cheaper off a potential (and temporary) cyclical dip in the industry.
Weekly price range $22–31 / share. Has discount IV premium however.
