Disclaimer: This is not investment advice.

Per the FT — ETFs / Passive funds are key players in markets now!

I’m working on sharing the knowledge tactics I’ve learned 10 years of Wall St. to help investors, starting with a simple step-by-step book!

My plan is to share as much as possible. Here’s a fun one to start.

Shareholder ownership as a tool. TLDR: Shareholder lists help you anticipate how stock moves, the quality of the business, and ideas potential “catalysts.” And be valuation flexible!

If you are interested, I’d love to hear your feedback here (2 minutes!). Here is the outline of the book. (Or leave a comment!) …

Disclaimer: Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

This is the clearest video I’ve seen that explains the mechanics of options

OPEX trade. For today’s OPEX (options expiration) day, I have tested an iron condor trade on $GME (sell/buy 210/220 calls and 200/190 puts), of selling premium ATM options on the thesis that $GME stays between 200–210 for opex day.

Why? Two guesses — balanced GAMMA and expected PIN action.

Gamma. Option dealers (which assume are a significant part of options OI) hedge the stock exposure (i.e. delta) of the options they have sold, for example buying stock to…

Disclaimer: Not medical advice. Based on my own sleep data and experience and takeaways from conversations with doctors. LAY PERSPECTIVE!

What causes sleep apnea… and a potential new product!

What is snoring and sleep apnea? There is a narrowing or blockage in the airway, most likely in the retropharyngeal (i.e. throat) area, which leads vibrating tissues (i.e. snoring!), or the body waking up to breathe (sleep apnea).

Why the heck does this happen?

Not enough space? Doctors could remove tissues in the palate (UPPP) or tonsils (for kids), which turned out was not that effective. Or taking it a step…

Surfing investment ideas

Disclaimer: Not investment advice. For information use only.

List of stock theses below.

Catching an AWESOME wave

The best stocks catch LONG waves…. like e-commerce which has both the most people and most money spend globally. And you also want earlier stage, owner-operators (even better, founders) who have the vision of executing to catch these long waves.

Balanced with discipline…. at the same time waves are DANGEROUS! And you need a process to ensure you survive and thrive in the volatility of waves. Like Bobby Axelrod says here you need a PROCESS and codified behavior. (I am still developing this!)

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice.

Momentum stocks have corrected nearly 12% from the highs in February 16th this year. This factor is roughly flat YTD. The sudden correction caught me by surprise — and my portfolio was fairly concentrated in positive momentum stocks (SE, BILI, PPD, etc.).

Was there a way to prevent this?

Summary? Select factors based macro environment. Stay or only buy into supportive trends. Use episodic (not trending) volatility to transact at high / low ends of liquidity.

There are three ways I believe can work to manage these factor swings.

  • Factor awareness. Per HedgeEye research…

Real estate investing: An incredibly manual, time-consuming, relationship-driven, multi-layered, and multi-fee process.

A proposed solution? Perhaps a simple tool to start. Compare quotes.

The real-estate investing process looks something like this:

Look for deals. Find property! Send mail to homes. Talk to wholesalers. Real estate agents. Network like crazy. Scan Zillow and Redfin always. Anything to find a deal!

Get under contract. You found a deal! Walk through the property with a contractor. Estimate your costs to flip or to hold the property. Make sure you have enough margin to turn a profit. Secure financing…

Where’s the money? Call 3–4…

Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. I have sold puts on GME in recent days.

What is going on with GME? On my read of the jump the in stock from $40 > $100+ is not a market structure problem. It looks like real demand (and shortage) of stock.

Quick recap — what’s the story? At <$10 the stock like traded like it had imminent bankruptcy risk ($1.2B in debt). Then cash levels started to improve > benefiting from sales of new consoles in 3Q. The big catalyst was Ryan Cohen (founder of Chewy) buying 13%…

This is an oldy but goody post :) re-posting for anyone digging into tankers….

Update 6/18/20. These are my views (personal only) and the data and analysis provided to help you come to a conclusion.

The current trade is SHORT tankers as the current supply/demand outlook suggest rates will be pressured until at least 2021 due to lower oil production and expanding fleet from ships coming off storage. This pushes the BULL case of rates due to lower fleet supply to 2022.

The trade could turn to LONG tankers in August / September if oil production is raised due to…

Disclaimer: This is for informational use only. Not investment advice.

Rocket… squeezing shorts :)

A highlight Wheel situations this week: RKT

RKT. Rocket is a technology-enabled mortgage originator funded by Dan Gilbert who is the Chairman of the company.

The upside pitch: RKT’s intense focus on customer experience and technology is driving market share gains (now 10+% of US mortgages, target of 20%) and margins (gain on sale margins of 3.2% vs. >2.6% nearest competitor).

Technical setup: So why does the RKT stock have 31% short interest? Mortgages are cyclical. Last year’s (2020) Fed stimulus drove 2Q-4Q volumes up 100+% y/y primarily from refinances…

Disclaimer: This is for informational use only. Not investment advice.

What is the Wheel? What if there were a way to own stock AND be paid to own them?

The Wheel concept has completely changed how I view investing for my personal account.

Let’s contrast the Wheel vs. an standard institutional strategy.

Own a few stocks that appreciate for a long time.
Collect CASH yield on your stock to buy more stock or distribute elsewhere.

An asset portfolio that appreciates and continuously yields cash.

Time works in your favor and the market pays you for the volatility of the asset.

Henry Chien

Investment analyst and biohacker

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